Dr. Răzvan GRIGORAŞ^

Abstract. This article has the purpose of testing and exploring the probable evolutions of the Black Sea Area, and its’ neighbours in 2035. In order to do that, we considered several indexes provided by International Futures with Pardee software for the six riveran states of the Black Sea. More specifically, we analysed the scores of the Global Power Index, the Military Spending, the Diplomatic Power, the Ageing Index, the Economic Freedom and the Human Development Index. The dates are somehow contradictory and the projections of those indexes conduct us to four scenarious of Black Sea in 2035. Those four scenarious are an extension of the book Romania – horizon 2035 edited in 2018 at Top Form Publishing House. The paper concludes that there is no certain future for the Black Sea Area. However, few things could be cultivated in order to grow resilience in the area.

 Colegiul Naţional de Apărare, Bucureşti